LUXURY WATCH PRICES FALLING
AS SECONDARY ROLEX MARKET DECLINES 8% THIS YEAR
Welcome, Timelords! If you have kept your horological nose firmly to the ground, you will know all about the current supply and demand that’s taking place in the secondary marketplace. A hotter debate than Roe v Wade (Did you catch the 2024 US Presidential Debate by the way), we are now seeing a cooling off in terms of prices on the pre-owned market.
However, if you are new to the game, or have come back from a much needed Summer
vacation in the Bahamas, listen up for a second. We are about to reveal the facts that have been causing more uncertainty than the swing state of Pennsylvania, amid the current position of the best luxury Swiss brands in the secondary marketplace. But how much is the sector actually worth?
According to a report from the Boston Consultancy Group, they found that pre-owned sales reached an estimated $22 billion which accounted for almost one-third of the huge $75 billion luxury watch market. This has caused the market to continue to grow, and is expected to reach $35 billion by 2026.
So, investors and connoisseurs…what do you need to know about the 8% drop for Rolex and why other Swiss brands are declining? Join us as we give you the full lowdown from bezel to hunter caseback around the state of the market at this time.
Covering soaring prices of a pandemic-riddled 2022 to the statistics of today, we will go through a detailed timeline of what has occurred over the years, the current status of the pre-owned marketplace against retail values and maybe an insightful quote (or two) from our trusted moles. Trust us, there’s no fake news going on here.
But, for now, in the words of Rolex Founder, Hans Wilsdorf;
“It is not with low prices, but on the contrary - it is with improved quality we cannot only hold the market, but improve it.”
A bold statement indeed. Yet how are things behaving on the secondary market and what determining factors are involved?
Supply And Demand
As Yazz proclaimed in 1988, The Only Way Is Up. That is for increased supply in watches.
Supply and demand are two terms that get horophiles hot under the collar. After all, these are the terms that dictate the potential value of a timepiece. Let’s break it down.
Supply (in horological terms) relates to the amount of watches being produced by a brand per year. Demand relates to the needs of the buyer. As we are seeing in the current market, the price drops in the secondary market are having a strong influence on the retail value and primary market, wherein watches are being sold by authorised retailers.
Due to there being less profit being made from flipping, due to the increased retail value and declining value of the secondary market, there appears on the surface to be less people buying.
On the other hand, luxury novelties have exploded in recent years faster than a Moonswatch queue. Although our moles tell us that you can buy not one, but four of the original Omega x Moonswatch collabs. These are;
- Mission to the Moon
- Mission to Mars,
- Mission on Earth
- Mission to the Sun in bright yellow.
What, no Strawberry Moon? Hmph. In the interim, we’ll have to make do with these four executions. And the catch? Oh yes, they are only being sold in two territories, namely China and the United States. Forget MAGA. How about MMGA? Make the Moonswatch Great Again!
Back to business, and let’s take you back in time for a minute where the boom in secondary market prices began…
Reviewing The 2022 Swiss Horological Marketplace
2022 remains the horological pinnacle that was supplied by cash rich fans globally. It’s understood that the very peak of the marketplace was in March 2022.
This can easily be explained due to the pandemic starting to ease up. Together with people having disposable cash with nothing better to do than feverishly burrow it away in their timekeeping rabbit holes due to lockdown restricting spending activity, they could return to the marketplace and buy a watch for that next special occasion or Wimbledon Centre Court seats.
Seeing an 11.4% increase of Swiss watch exports from 2021, 2022 saw a record year of CHF 24.8 billion, blowing the horological industry past any conception of their potential heights.
Remember, this was the period of the famed Moonswatches making their first appearances, immediately selling over one million units in 2022. Trust us, we know just how hard it is to get that Snoopy inspired model or take a deep dive with the Blancpain Fifty Fathoms and Moonswatches collab pieces.
Let’s take a look at this handy graph from WatchCharts below:
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Source - WatchCharts
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This graph offers an interesting reading of the Market Index. Without getting too intricate into the gory, Wolf of Wall Street details, it essentially covers the performance of a group of investments. In this case, we’re looking at timepieces!
Do you mind if we turn American briefly? This is the currency used by WatchCharts for standardising and ensuring accurate calculations, without mixing and matching various currencies for our titillation!
In 2022, we saw a peak market index of $97,145 in March, as we moved into an energy crisis, Ukrainian war and record levels of inflation. That figure promptly dropped into a rather average start to January 2023 with a $70,400 Market Index.
But, we are of course in the here and the now, i.e. 2024 and the surprising approximate 8% decrease in Rolex prices on the secondary market, as well as other Swiss watch brands like Audemars Piguet and Vacheron Constantin having to cope with a drop in value. There’s absolutely no sign of a Rolex price increase…yet either on the secondary market or at retail value!
Hang on a tick though..Let’s welcome in a new era like the fabulous 2024 IWC Portugieser Chinese New Year and see what’s been going on this year.
How Things Are Looking In 2024…
Not good, Timelords. Well, not for some brands anyway! With losers, there are always winners which means that, like a finely tuned Formula One engine, the consumer or collector may be in pole position to buy one, or an entire collection of fabulous Swiss watches for a significantly lower price.
Why, we hear you cry? Let’s cover exactly why 2024 has cooled off more than a Zenith Defy Extreme Glacier for the mighty Swiss industry.
Ultimately, it boils down to a few key pointers as explained below:
Low Demand
Demand is a critical part of the watchmaking business.
It ensures that not only are the watches being bought, but they are consistently being lusted after like a Rolex GMT-Master II Pepsi, and therefore become phenomenal investments as they sell for higher figures on the secondary marketplace.
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Source - Rolex
However, with exports dropping around 3.8% in February 2024 according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, times are looking a little hard. In fact, this represents the second occasion in three years that monthly exports have fallen.
Then in March, exports plunged downwards like a Rolex Deepsea Challenge to around 25.4%, according to the very same report. In real terms, that equates to around 400,000 fewer exports than the previous twelve months.
On top of this, demand has become a slight problem in 2024. We have seen fallen demand from Asian buyers. For example the demand figure has dropped by a huge 25.4% across China and 19% for Hong Kong. However, Europe has equally shied away from the Swiss watch industry, seeing nations like the Netherlands dropping demand by 16.8% and 2.1% for the British.
Top conglomerates like Swatch Group, Richemont and LVMH have therefore been a little nervous. But why should we give a fig about these umbrella companies? Well, they each harbour some of the top luxury watch brands in the current industry.
Just take a look at the table below:
|
GROUP NAME |
BRANDS |
|
Swatch Group |
|
|
Richemont |
|
|
LVMH |
We saw Swatch Group see a 14.3% decline in sales for their first semester in 2024, The Richemont Group saw a 13% drop in sales in their watches division, while LVMH have only decreased by 2% in their Watches and Jewellery sales. Nonetheless, this is still indicative of a negative trend.
Perhaps the most notable indicator of low demand is the inventory levels. Here, conglomerates like Richemont have seen a 12% increase, with Swatch Group yielding a 5.5% rise, suggesting overproduction and a slowing of sales.
Even horological stalwarts, Rolex have been privy to this trend. Since 2022, it is estimated their market index has decreased by around 14.9%, faring a little better than Richemont’s 17.2% drop and poorer than Swatch Group’s and LVMH’s 7.6% and 9.9% decrease, respectively. Still, they are out in front by a long shot from Cartier in 2nd on the 2024 Morgan Stanley Report thanks to around a 30% market share.
This horological runaway gravy train aint calling time on anything yet.
Low Profitability At Resale
Perhaps the best indicator of the profitability of these Swiss watch industry players is by using a specific index for each brand.
As part of Chrono Hunter’s continuing trend of offering the best services possible, fairest prices and our one of a kind concept of multiple offers when buying or selling, allow us to condense our research into a very handy table.
By looking into the secondary market, there is a clear trend into the performance of each of the brands watches
|
BRAND |
6 MONTH PERCENTAGE CHANGE |
|
- 1.9% |
|
|
- 2.1% |
|
|
- 2.2% |
|
|
- 2.6% |
|
|
- 2.9% |
|
|
- 3.1% |
|
|
- 3.4% |
|
|
Chopard |
- 3.6% |
|
- 3.5% |
|
|
- 3.8% |
|
|
- 3.8% |
|
|
- 4.1% |
|
|
- 5.8% |
|
|
- 5.8% |
|
|
- 6.1% |
|
|
- 6.5% |
|
|
- 7.2% |
|
|
Girard-Perregaux |
- 8.4% |
Wow, how’s that for a little undercover sleuthing? Pack your Cluedo away for a second.
We see horological icons like Patek Philippe, Rolex and Vacheron Constantin all losing value over a 6 month period on the secondary market. Therefore, the gap for people picking up the high profits on the secondary market against retail value is unfortunately narrowed.
While this is a problem for a lot of investment-minded horophiles, those with a little business acumen will find this to be a great time to lay down some cash on tempting pieces. With prices lowering, why not get your hands on a luxury Swiss timepiece on the secondary market for a much smaller figure than usual via Chrono Hunter.
Be it looking to start your timekeeping journey, big bonus, promotion, birthday and everything in between, our unrivalled brand expertise, 100% authenticity and unparalleled service means you are in the most capable hands!
Less Speculative Spending
Those living in the UK will know about the current squeeze that’s happening to our pockets, wallets and purses.
In fact, a study by KPMG found that 52% of consumers are cutting their non-essential spending and an incredibly low, 3% of consumers are able to spend more on non-essentials. Sorry…brand new timepieces are not quite the priority!
However, with speculative spending no longer enticing investors as the risks are not worth the rewards, this means that the prices of watches are naturally falling on the secondary market. This is especially true considering the high inventory levels and low demand which mean there are more timepieces in some cases than there are people buying them.
A strong indicator of this are export figures. The stats were particularly targeted at those higher-level luxury watches. For example, the export figures for novelties priced at over 3,000 Swiss francs took a 9.9% decline, indicating those more pricey pieces are not pulling in the same levels of attraction.
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Nautilus 7118/1A - Source - Patek Philippe
Who knows…that Rolex Submariner or the beautiful Patek Philippe Nautilus you’ve had your eyes on for months, may start to decline down into your price bracket. According to Watchcharts, a sought after 5711/1A in stainless steel was trending at nearly £85,000 this time last year. They are now nearly 30% less, hovering around £64,000 as of September 2024.
Since export figures internationally are dropping, your desired piece may become more than a figment of your imagination. We’ve seen export stats falling 6.5% for the USA and export figures topple by 3.5% for Japan.
But like always, the markets are unpredictable and cannot be trusted to be consistent over time, so investments are best made sooner rather than later.
Rolex Loses Value!
Yes, this is a title that we did not think we’d be typing or commenting on!
Over the course of two years, Rolex has seen a decline of around 15% of their market index value. This means that on the secondary market, they have been actively becoming more available, and potentially top investment options.
How about we dial in a little further? From the period of August 2024 to this month, September, the brand has decreased their market index value by 0.8%. While this is not a significantly world-altering stat, it represents a pattern that the watches value is dropping on the secondary market.
However, it’s the smaller brands like Damasko, Sinn and Junghans that appear to be having their hay-day. Seeing an incremental monthly rise of 1.7%. 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, it seems that the big Swiss brands (and their watches) are taking a step down as ultra-strong investments for the time being.
Microbrands like Naoya Hida have stood firm against the negative market, and kept their supply and demand levels consistent.
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Daytona - Source - Rolex
Specifically for the Genevan timekeepers, the majority of their lines have seen drops in their index value over the course of 6 months.
With the Daytona seeing a significant drop of 7.3% to the Submariner and Day-Date dropping 4.3% and 2.5% each, now may be the best time to buy a watch from this brand as prices continue to fall, as opposed to rising out of your price-range.
And who knows, these lines may be swift to boom back in value over time if you acquire and hold onto them!
Chrono Hunter’s Insight
The marketplace is quickly cooling, meaning the chances of you purchasing a fresh Swiss timepiece is becoming more and more likely than finding Lord Lucan. Remember, we are seeing more supply, less demand and therefore a natural drop in pre-owned prices.
Compared with last year, we’ve seen a number of very expensive timepieces start to drop to more affordable levels in 2024. Below is a handy table of four of the biggest horological brands right now, and their best models that we have looked at over at Watchcharts:
|
Model |
Price September 2023 (Secondary Market) |
Price September 2024 (Secondary Market) |
|
Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1A Steel Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5168 White Gold Patek Philippe Calatrava Pilot 5524 White Gold |
£81,300 £62,000 £29,700 |
£64,800 £56,160 £26,500 |
|
Rolex Submariner 116610LV Hulk Rolex Daytona 116520 |
£13,700 £14,540 £13,900 |
£14,500 £17,400 £15,400 |
|
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Chronograph 41mm Steel 26331ST Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Offshore 26401RO Rose Gold Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Extra-Thin Steel 15202ST |
£36,000 £33,130 £47,850 |
£30,350 £27,570 £44,360 |
|
Vacheron Constantin Overseas Self-Winding 4520V/210A-B128 Vacheron Constantin FiftySix Complete Calendar 4000E/000A-B439 Vacheron Constantin Historiques 222 4200H/222J-B935 |
£21,950 £12,960 £55,620 |
£22,460 £14,590 £68,300 |
However, don’t confuse this with the industry being in a permanent catatonic state. Last year saw a number of models that originally were comfortably out of people’s price bracket.
And that’s not all. We see pieces across the horological spectrum performing exceptionally well. For example, the Omega Speedmaster was valued at £4,900 on the secondary market in September 2023 to £4,500 in September 2024.
After all, it’s always best to invest low and see those beauties soar in value!
Don’t just take this humble writer’s word for it. This is what Chrono Hunter Operations Manager, David Wingrove had to say on the state of the secondary market:
“For the enthusiast, the current market presents not a setback, but a developing opportunity to finally own a piece we genuinely desire, not just the one we hope will appreciate in value. If recent years have taught us anything as collectors, it’s that we should invest thoughtfully in the brands we love, not merely those we speculate might turn a profit."
Conclusion
Hey now, hey now…don’t dream it’s over.
The horological market remains somewhat upset in September 2024. We are unsure as to what the future holds, but what we can almost guarantee is that a bounce back is likely. Be it next week or months from now, the horological marketplace is an unpredictable mistress…
It’s not just the Holy Trinity or lone rangers Rolex that take up the brunt of the Swiss horological marketplace. Other titans like Cartier, Jaeger-LeCoultre and IWC are equally top investments that should be considered. Since we are so generous, below are a few excellent models for you to peruse:
|
Models |
PRICE SEPTEMBER 2023 (Secondary Marketplace Price) |
PRICE SEPTEMBER 2024 (Secondary Marketplace Price) |
|
Patek Philippe Twenty~4 Automatic Steel 7300/1200A |
£17,600 |
£16,200 |
|
Patek Philippe 7118/1A |
£38,500 |
£37,300 |
|
Rolex Sky-Dweller 336933 |
£20,000 |
£15,100 |
|
IWC Portugieser 371491 |
£4,000 |
£3,480 |
Across the board, prices are dropping on the pre-owned market. We’ve seen brands like Rolex witness 8% drops to Girard-Perregaux losing around the same amount in the space of 6 months.
We are now at the precipice. Will we see a sudden explosion in the value of these Swiss watches? Currently, things are looking steady, but we recommend keeping a constant eye on the market and buying while the prices are low. It’s all in the pleasure.
And if you are looking for some horological stimulation that’ll put your wrist into overdrive, we know of a revolutionary, market leading platform that’s leading the charge, one watch at a time.
We’ll see you on the other side…
Want to buy a watch from the safest and most reliable platform on the pre-owned market today? Looking to save money the smart way and enjoy the best prices paid when you sell a watch? Visit Chrono Hunter today and enjoy peerless service, quick turnaround and unrivalled brand expertise.
No more open marketplaces, scams or dodgy meetups when making a transaction. Contact us here to find out why we are the essential site for all your buying and selling needs.
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Further Reading:
The Best Rolex Watches To Buy For Men In 2024
Buy Or Sell A Luxury Watch The Smart Way With Chrono Hunter
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